钦州市郊区电力需求影响因素分析及电力需求预测

Prediction and Influencing Factors Analysis of Electric Power Demand of Qinzhou City Suburbs

通过对影响钦州市郊区电力需求主要因素进行分析,探索钦州市郊区电力需求与经济发展、区域产业结构调整以及季节性气温等因素之间的关系,采用基于灰色模型的用电量预测算法,从各产业发展趋势和负荷结构等方面对2012—2013年的钦州市郊区电力需求进行预测。

The paper explores the relationships between the electric power demand of Qinzhou city suburbs and the economic development, the regional industrial restructuring, the seasonal temperature and other factors through ana-lyzing the main influencing factors of the electric power demand of Qinzhou city suburbs; and predicts the electric power demands of Qinzhou city suburbs of 2012~2013 from the aspects of the development tread of each industry and the load structure based on the power consumption prediction algorithm of the gray model.