判断与决策中的规划谬误

The Planning Fallacy in Judgment and Decision Making

规划谬误是指人们在估计未来任务的完成时间时,倾向于过度乐观,低估任务完成时间的一种现象。规划谬误的心理机制主要包括规划谬误理论和记忆偏差理论。规划谬误的影响因素主要有认知因素、动机因素、个体的经验水平、目标任务的性质等。规划谬误的应对策略主要有与过去的经验相联系、从第三人称视角进行估计、任务分解及时间分配。未来的研究主要从规划谬误与策略性误解、乐观偏差、过分自信的关系,规划谬误的产生根源、规划谬误的跨文化研究、规划谬误的研究范围及应用领域等方面进一步探讨。

The planning fallacy refers to people＇s overoptimistic tendency to underestimate the time required to complete a future task. Researchers have provided theories to explain the psychological mechanism of planning fallacy, planning fallacy theory and memory bias theory. Evidences show planning fallacy could be influenced by some factors, such as cognitive factors, motivational factors, individual experience level and task property. Previous research findings show that planning fallacy could be avoided by coping strategy. The directions for further researches of planning fallacy are discussed. Future researches are expected to clear up the delicate relationship among planning fallacy, strategic misrepresentation, optimistic bias and overconfidence and explore its original source, cross-cultural significance and practical application values.