河南省电力需求发展趋势预测分析

Analysis and Forecast on Electricity Demand Trend of Henan Province

受国际和国内宏观经济形势影响,河南省电力需求增长速度大幅降低,2012年增速降为3.33%,2013年上半年增速为1.17%,远远低于"十一五"期间11.7%的年平均增速,其中2013年上半年工业用电增速为-0.86%,占全省用电比重达54%的六大高耗能行业用电增速仅为-3.8%。通过对近期河南省用电增速与经济增速背离现象以及典型行业的市场环境及用电趋势分析,对未来河南省电力需求发展趋势进行了预判,并得出了在新形势下电力需求增速放缓将使得电力供需形势有所缓和,未来电力工业发展将成为经济发展的推动力而非制约因素的结论。

Affected by the domestic and international macroeconomic situation from the year of 2012, the growth rate of electricity demand in Henan Province has been slowing down dramatically to 3.33% in 2012 and 1.17% in the first half of 2013, which are both far lower than the average growth rate of 11.7% during ＂The Eleventh Five-Year Plan＂. Moreover, the growth rate for industry usage in the first half of 2013 is -0.86%, and that of energy-intensive industries hits -3.8%, which account for 54% of the electricity demand of the industry usage. Through the analysis on the inconstancies between the electric power consumption growth and the social economy growth, along with the market environment and the power consumption tendency in several typical industries in Henan Province, the electric power demand tendency of Henan Province is forecasted in this paper. In the end, this paper concludes that under the new circumstances, the slowdown of electric： power demand is going to mitigate the electric power demand and supply situation. The development of electric power industry will turn to be an essential booster rather than constraints in the development of social economy.