基于景气状态测度的国家科技创新景气指数研究——以中美日法德为例

Research on the climate index of national science and technological innovation based on the climate status measurement——Taking China,US,Japan,France and Germany as examples

随着区域创新系统概念成为制订区域创新政策的基础分析框架,学术界和政府加大了对区域创新指数的测度研究。但是目前的创新指数主要是基于创新能力和创新绩效的指数测度,这类指数指标之间缺乏时序性、指数的动态时效性也不足、无预警功能,指标越来越宽泛、不能反映科技创新景气状态,对科技创新政策指导性较弱。本文从景气状态的视角,基于创新周期波动的理论,提出并构建了国家科技创新景气指数,对中国等五国进行了实证研究,并构建了国家科技创新景气状态的预警信号系统。

As the concept of regional innovation system becomes a basic analytical framework to formulate the policy of regional innovation, academia and the government increased the measurement research on the regional innovation index. However, the current innovation index is based on innovation ability and innovation performance. These indexes are lack of time sequence, and with the problem of dynamic timeliness, lacking of early warning function, and indicators are too broad to reflect the state of the science and technology innovation. All of these factors make scientific and technological innovation policy guidance weak. Build- ing the scientific and technological innovation climate index which is based on the innovation cycle theory from the perspective of the climate status, this paper not only conducts an empirical study on China and other four countries, but also builds tbe early warning signal system for national scientific and technological innovation climate index.