试析俄日关系“解冻”及其前景

An Analysis of the “Thaw”in Russia-Japan Relations and Its Prospect

自普京第三次出任俄罗斯总统以及安倍晋三再次出任日本首相以来,俄日关系实现了以2013年4月双方首脑会晤为标志的"解冻",并取得明显进展。亚太形势深刻变化是俄日战略矛盾相对弱化与合作议题扩展的重要原因。俄希望维持亚太力量平衡、牵制美日同盟、在俄日关系中占据主动、借力日本加速俄远东地区发展,以及日本企图拉俄制华、改善自身亚太处境、力图解决北方领土问题并促进日本经济发展等,则是俄日关系改善和发展的战略动因。未来俄日关系的深化还面临若干因素影响,未来前景仍具有不确定性。

Russia-Japan relations have witnessed progress especially when the two leaders met in April 2013 as a sign of thawing relations. Russia-Japan strategic conflicts are relatively reduced and more cooperative proposals have been aired due to great changes in Asia-Pacific situation. However,the future Russia-Japan relations will be influenced by a series of factors including the U. S. and the U. S.-Japan alliance,historical mistrust between Russia and Japan and Russia's concern over Japan's ambition of becoming a military power. Therefore,Russia-Japan relations face uncertain future.