中国海海表风场、海浪场与El Nino的相关性分析

The relationship between sea surface wind field, wave field and El Nino in the China Sea

利用CCMP风场，分析了中国海海表风场与E1Nino之间的关系，并利用CCMP风场驱动WW3海浪模式，对1988--2009年的中国海海浪场进行数值模拟，探索中国海的海浪场与E1Nino的内在联系。以期能利用E1Nino指标辅助中国海海浪场、海表风场的中长期预测、防灾减灾等．结果表明中国海的海表风场、海浪场与nino3指数关系密切：①同期及1—4个月后的海表风场、海浪场与当月的nino3指数表现出显著性负相关，尤其是2个月后的海浪场、海表风场与nino3指数之间的负相关性最显著；7～10个月后的海表风场、海浪场与当月的nino3指数表现出显著性正相关，尤其是8个月后的海浪场、海表风场与nino3指数之间的正相关性最显著．②1988--1997年期间、1999--2009年期间，8个月后的海表风场、海浪场与当月nino3指数的走势表现出非常好的一致性．@nino3指数、中国海的海浪场、海表风场三者存在较为显著的、共同的半年周期（5．87～6．29个月）、年周期（11．00—13．54个月）．@nino3指数的突变期为20世纪80年代后期、1999年7月—2000年11月、2005--2009年；海表风场与海浪场的显著性突变期完全一致，为2000年11月—2001年5月，其中nino3指数在1999年7月—2000年11月期间的突变期比海表风场和海浪场的突变期超前约半年左右，nino3区海温的突变可能是中国海海浪场、海表风场突变的主要诱发因素之一．

This paper tries to analyze the relationship between China Sea wind field and El Nino by using CCMP （Cross- Calibrated,Multi- Platform） wind field,and to take advantage of the CCMP wind field to drive WAVEWATCH -Ⅲ wave model to simulate the China Sea wave field, and explore the intrinsic link between China Sea waves field and El Nino, which aiming to use El Nino indicators to serve long -term forecast and disaster prevention and reduction in the China Sea wave fields and wind field. Results show that the China Sea wind field and wave field are closely related to nino3 index：（~）A comparison of China Sea wind fields,wave field with nino3 index over the same period has been made, with a lag of 1--4 months for wind field and wave field, nino3 index shows significant negative correlation to them, especially with a lag of 2 months for wind field and wave field, hino3 index shows strongest negative correlation to them. With a lag of 7--10 months for the wave field and wind field, nino3 index shows positive correlation to them, especially with a lag of 8 months, while nino3 index shows the strongest positive correlation to them. （~） During 1988 to 1997,1999 to 2009 ,the trend of wind field and wave field with lagged 8 months show very good consistency with nino3 index. （~） Nino3 index, China Sea wave field, wind field have the significant and regular periods of 5.87--6.29 months, 11.00--13.54 months. （~）The muta- tion period of nino3 index is the late 1980 s ,July in 1999 to November in 2000,2005--2009. The mutation period of wind field is completely consistent with that of wave field, which is from November 2000 to May 2001, and this mutation may be caused by that of SST in nino3 area.