2001-2010年洞庭湖区经济、社会和环境变化及其生态承载力响应

Response of ecological carrying capacity to socioeconomic and environmental changes in Dongting Lake Region during 2001-2010

不同时空尺度下,生态承载力对区域经济、社会和环境变化会作出不同程度的响应。利用可持续发展指数测度模型和生态承载力响应模型,对洞庭湖区2001-2010年经济、社会和环境变化及其生态承载力响应进行分析。结果表明:①2001年以来洞庭湖区经济发展度和社会协调度一直呈上升趋势;生态系统的安全性和可持续性向良性转变;环境可持续度则呈波动性下降态势。②洞庭湖区17个县域的经济发展度和社会协调度均呈上升态势,可持续性呈现差异性地向弱可持续转变;岳阳市区、常德市区和益阳市区的经济发展度和社会协调度高于其他14个县域,环境可持续度则下降最明显。③洞庭湖区生态承载力的响应状态分为强超载、超载、弱低载和低载4类,不同时段县域生态承载力的响应状态差异明显;岳阳市区、常德市区和益阳市区社会经济发展水平较高,而其生态承载力响应状态则处于强超载,在区域发展水平上反映出湖区县域经济发展、社会进步、资源利用和环境质量的协调性较差。④环境可持续度在一定程度上成为提高生态承载力的重要基础,现行的"掠夺式"县域经济发展模式成为提高生态承载力的阻碍因子,由于社会经济发展过于依赖资源开发以及生态环境干扰,使得环境可持续度对于生态承载力与可持续发展指数的影响相对较弱,其实质往往是以牺牲生态环境为代价。

The interrelation between socioeconomic and environmental conditions and ecological carrying capacity is one of the most important themes of sustainable development studies in recent years.At different spatial and temporal scales,ecological carrying capacity responds to regional social,economic,and environmental changes in varying degrees.Using sustainable development index and ecological carrying capacity response model,the social,economic,and environmental changes and corresponding ecological carrying capacity change of the Dongting Lake Region from 2001 to 2010 were analyzed.The results indicate that：（1） For the lake region as a whole,economic development degree and social harmonization degree showed an upward trend; integrity and sustainability of ecosystems showed an positive change; while environmental sustainability degree declined.（2） Development degree,harmonization degree and sustainable degree of 17 counties of the Dongting Lake Region showed an upward trend; in the urban areas of Yueyang,Changde and Yiyang development and harmonization degrees were higher than the other 14 counties,while environmental sustainability degree decreased most significantly.（3） Ecological carrying capacity was divided into four categories：severely overload,overload,slightly under-load and under-load.The urban areas of Yueyang,Changde and Yiyang had higher levels of socioeconomic development,but the status of their ecological carrying capacity was severely overload,which indicates that economic development,social progress,resource use and environmental quality were poorly balanced.（4） Regression analysis of ecological carrying capacity,economic development degree,social harmonization degree,environmental sustainability degree,and sustainable development index show that,to some extent,environmental sustainability degree became an important foundation for improving ecological carrying capacity.The present destructive economic development model has become an obstacle for enhancing ecological carrying capacity.Due to the fact that the rapid socioeconomic development depends too much on resource exploitation and disturbances to the regional environment and ecology,the influence of environmental sustainability on ecological carrying capacity and sustainable development index is rather weak and economic development is largely at the cost of the ecological environment.This result provides a basis for the country to implement the scientific concept of development,build a harmonious society and achieve sustainable development of its regional economy,society,environment and ecology.