基于新型城镇化视角的区域PRED系统综合评价——以大连为例

Comprehensive assessment of regional PRED system based on new urbanization approach: a case study in Dalian

基于中国在推进以"人"为核心的新型城镇化过程中人口、资源、环境与经济、社会发展诸要素相互促进或相互制约的复杂关系视角,借鉴人口承载力思想,提出区域PRED系统承载力概念及其表征方法,参考压力—状态—响应模型(PSR),构建了区域PRED系统的承载力—压力—状态—响应评价指标体系(CPSR模型),在此基础上提出区域PRED系统综合响应度与应急响应级别划分标准,通过多目标规划与决策方法对区域PRED系统进行综合评价。以2000-2012年大连市PRED系统为例进行实证分析,结果显示:①研究时段内大连市PRED系统一直处于超载状态,人口承载力由363万人降至291万人;②大连市PRED系统压力低于全国平均水平,区域PRED系统负荷指数由0.97降至0.85,区域PRED系统综合响应级别始终处于Ⅱ级橙色预警或Ⅲ级黄色预警状态。评价结果基本符合近年来大连市有关资源、环境及经济、社会发展的客观实际,评价结果可视性较强、可靠性较高。区域PRED系统承载力概念以及基于CPSR模型的区域PRED系统综合评价指标体系、多目标决策评价方法,为定量评价区域可持续发展提供了一种新的思路和方法,对新型城镇化背景下的相关政策制定具有一定参考价值。

At present,China is in the process of rapid urbanization.The traditional urban development approach urgently needs to be transformed into a new urbanization model that is intelligent,green and low-carbon.Meanwhile,coordinated urban-rural development and regional integrative development have gained greater importance.In order to systematically assess the quality of China＇s urbanization under the new situation,the comprehensive assessment method of regional PRED system was proposed considering the complicated relationship between population,resources,environment and economic and social development（PRED）,which are mutually stimulating but also restricting.This paper proposes the concept and characterization method of regional PRED carrying capacity.By learning from the Pressure-State-Response（PSR） model,the assessment index system of regional PRED on Carrying capacity-Pressure-State-Response was established.A comprehensive responsiveness and emergency response grade categorization method was proposed to assess regional PRED system by multi-objective planning and decision making.Using Dalian city as an example,this study empirically analyzes the above-mentioned concept,model,assessment index system and assessment method.The results show that during 2000-2012,PRED system of Dalian was in a state of overload,that regional population carrying capacity decreased from 3630 thousand to 2910 thousand persons.Compared with nationwide levels,the pressure of Dalian PRED system was relative low with a decreasing trend：the load index of regional PRED system dropped from 0.97 to 0.85.Comprehensive responsiveness of regional PRED in Dalian was above 0.6 and emergency response grade was Grade Ⅱ （orange） or Grade Ⅲ （yellow）.The results indicate that because of resource scarcityand environmental degradation,the population carrying capacity of Dalian was gradually decreasing.Due to the continuous development of economy and social security,the pressure of urbanization in Dalian has been relieved.In the future,relevant government departments should seek to actively solve the problem of resources and environmental constraints of new urbanization,resolve the conflicts that hindered the sustainable development of economy and society,promote regional coordinated development through reasonably managing the urban size and resources allocation and practicing environmental protection,industrial transformation and livelihood security improvement.By comparing with similar studies and further discussion,the results of this paper are considered as reliable and conforming to the reality of Dalian in population,resources,environment and economic and social development.The concept of regional PRED carrying capacity and the assessment index system based on the carrying capacity PSR model and multi-objective decision-making method provide a new thought and method to quantitatively assess the quality of urbanization and regional sustainable development.