非确定因素影响下离散时段公路施工区用户费用模型

User cost model of highway work zone during discrete periods under influence of uncertain factors

分析了离散时段下高速公路施工区的交通状况,通过离散施工时段,比较了各时间段内施工区容量和交通需求的关系,建立了各个时间段相应的用户费用计算模型。分析了高速公路施工区用户费用的非确定因素,根据非确定因素的概率分布值,通过蒙特卡罗模拟对用户费用的波动区间进行预测,并以清连高速公路为例进行实例验证。计算结果表明:应用提出的模型,白天施工时段的用户费用均值为193 148 021元,最大值与最小值分别为466 820 060、117 342 849元,夜晚施工时段的用户费用均值为1 795 047元,最大值与最小值分别为3 443 468、1 417 274元。提出的模型能更好地体现非确定因素的影响。

The traffic situation of highway work zone during discrete periods was analyzed. By dispersing the work periods, the relationships between the capacities of work zones and user costs during different discrete periods were compared, and the calculation models of user costs during corresponding periods were set up. The uncertain factors of user cost for highway work zone were analyzed. Based on the probability distributions of uncertain factors, the fluctuation scope of user cost was predicted by using Monte Carlo simulation and verified by the example of Qinglian Highway. Calculation result indicates by using the proposed model, the average user cost under the day-time work scheme is 193 148 021 yuan, and the maximum and minimum costs are 466 820 060, 117 342 849 yuan respectively. The 1 795 047 yuan, and the maximum respectively. It is found that the ap uncertain factors well. 3 tabs, 5 figs, average user cost under the night-time and minimum costs are 3 443 468, plication of proposed model can show 18 refs. work scheme is 1 417 274 yuan the influences ofuncertain factors well. 3 tabs, 5 figs, 18 refs.