基于险兆事件的煤与瓦斯突出灾害概率模型构建

Probability Model Construction of Coal and Gas Outburst Based on Near- miss Incidents

任何一起煤与瓦斯突出灾害事故发生,都有征兆显现。为了防止煤与瓦斯突出灾害事故发生,以煤炭开采过程中的Near-miss为研究对象,阐述了煤与瓦斯突出Near-miss中的致突险兆因子及其作用机制,在现有灾害理论以及煤与瓦斯突出机理、预警技术研究的基础上,提出了煤与瓦斯突出灾害由4个要素组成,即致突险兆因子、承灾体、孕灾环境和相互作用形式,并进而提出了描述基于Near-miss的煤与瓦斯突出灾害的方法。

There must be omens before the occurrence of any coal -gas outburst. To prevent coal -gas outburst, this article, focusing on near misses, expounds on near - miss inducing factors and their mechanism. Using existing disaster theories, coal - gas outburst mechanism and prevention techniques, it proposes that coal - gas outburst is subject to four major factors inducing near misses, disaster bearing body, hazard inducing environment and the interaction format, and it further puts forward the description methods of coal -gas outburst disaster based on near - misses.