我国外汇储备与货币供应量的关系——基于协整和误差修正模型

The Relation of Foreign Exchange Reserve and Currency Supplies——Based on Cointegration and Error Correction Model

双顺差使外汇储备持续增加,人民币升值压力增大。为了维持人民币汇率的稳定,央行不得不加大货币供给量来买入外汇市场上过多的外汇。本文深入研究了外汇储备和货币供给量(M1,M2)的关系,采用协整和误差修正模型,得出了外汇储备和货币供给量长期均衡关系和短期波动关系,并对比了对M1,M2影响的差异。最后提出了减弱外汇储备对货币供给影响的建议,以增强央行的货币政策的独立性。

The double favorable balance has urged the foreign exchange accumulate rapidly and the pressure of revaluation of RMB increased .In order to maintain the stability of exchange rate , the central bank had to increase the money supply to buy foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market .This paper studies foreign exchange re-serves and money supply of （ M1, M2） relations, using cointegration and error correction model , we find the a-mount of foreign exchange reserves and money supply exist long-run equilibrium relationship and short-term fluctua-tions compare the effects of difference .Finally, the proposal of weakening the impact of foreign exchange reserves is put forward to strengthen the independence of the central bank＇s monetary policy .