基于GeoSOS的城市扩展模拟——以旅顺口区为例

An Urban Expansion Simulation Supported by GeoSOS: A Case of Lushun

运用MCE-CA和Logistic-CA两种基本的元胞自动机模型作为理论模型，考虑边界到市中心、镇中心、铁路和主要公路等作为区位因素的空间距离约束条件，以及地形和禁止建设区作为区位因素的全局限制约束条件，在地理模拟优化系统（ Geographical Simulation and Optimization System ，GeoSOS ）的支持下，对1990～2000年和2000～2010年辽宁省大连市旅顺口区的城市空间扩展进行了模拟，并取得较好效果。结果表明，MCE-CA模型的Kappa系数分别为0．71和0．64，Logistic-CA模型分别为0．54和0．55，两者均达到较好的模拟精度；MCE-CA模型适用于主观变量较多的CA模型，Logistic-CA模型更适合于客观因素较多的CA模型；利用合理的CA模型模拟旅顺口区城市未来土地利用变化，可为今后的土地规划以及制定有效的土地管理措施和方针政策提供依据。

This research takes the MCE -CA and Logistic -CA, which are two basic cellular automata models , as the theoretical model .Considering the distance to downtown , town center , railway and main road as space distance constraint conditions for location factor;considering topography and the banned constructive zone as global restrictions conditions for location factor ; in the support of the GeoSOS （Geographical Simulation and Optimization System , GeoSOS）, focusing on the urban space expansion simulation of Lush-un from 1990 to 2000 and 2000 to 2010 , and achieves good effects .The results show that , the Kappa coefficients of MCE -CA model is 0.71 and 0.64, The Kappa coefficients of Logistic -CA model is 0.54 and 0.55, both of them achieve good simulation accuracy;MCE-CA model is suitable for CA model which contains more subjective variables , Logistic-CA model is suitable for CA model which contains more objective variables ; utilizing reasonable CA model to simulate the approaching land use change of Lushun , it would provide the basis for the approaching land planning and formulating effective land management measures and policies .