中国通货膨胀预期陷阱的实证研究

An Empirical Study on Inflation Expectation Trap in China

中国通胀预期陷阱是一种尚未深入认知的社会经济现象。国外研究表明,它的生成机理与货币政策时间的非一致性紧密相关。本文通过理论与实证分析说明:我国公众的通胀预期是学习型、适应性预期,公众通胀预期非稳定性和周期性波动是一种常态,中国通胀预期陷阱的生成风险正在不断地积蓄和增大,通胀预期陷阱及其生成机理在我国具有一定的现实性,超常经济增长冲动和政府业绩导向很可能是我国通胀预期陷阱的宏观主导诱因。政策建议:正确引导居民的通货膨胀预期,增强货币政策的公信力,加强对实际通货膨胀的调控等。

Inflation expectation trap is a kind of social and economic phenomenon,which has not been deeply cognized in China.Foreign relative research shows that the formation mechanism for inflation expectation trap is closely related to time-inconsistency of monetary policy.This paper obtains the following conclusions through theoretical and empirical analysis.The public inflation expectations are learning and adaptive in China,and instability and periodicity of public expectations are a normal and constant phenomenon.The risk of inflation expectations trap is constantly accumulating and increasing,and inflation expectations trap and its formation mechanism have realistic foundation in China.The impulse of extraordinary economic growth under performance oriented government goal is likely to be the leading cause of inflation expectations trap in China.The article gives out some policy recommendations including guiding public inflation expectations correctly,enhancing the credibility of monetary policy,and strengthening the regulation of the actual inflation and so on.