我国财政主导程度测算

The Measure of the Degree of Fiscal Domination in China

本文在界定财政主导概念的基础上,测算了我国财政部门的主导程度,认为我国是典型的财政主动+货币被动型国家,并且2009年的大规模刺激政策造成财政主导程度进一步增强。我国财政主导性较强的主要原因在于财政部门缺少明确的财政规则约束。随着财政压力日益增加。一旦爆发财政危机.很可能再次由货币部门承担弥补财政缺口的重任,这将造成通货膨胀上升并阻碍经济增长。应尽快实行财政政策规则,规范地方政府融资,严控金融体系准财政行为,不断提高财政决策科学性,逐步实现从财政主导向货币主导体制转变,增强货币政策有效性和中央银行独立性。

On the basis of defining the concept of fiscal dominance,the paper measures the degree of fiscal dominance in China,arguing that China is a typical country of 'Active Fiscal+Passive Monetary' type,and that the massive fiscal stimulus in 2009 further enhances the degree of fiscal dominance.China's fiscal dominance is largely due to the fact that China's fiscal sector lacks the constraint of a clear set of rules.With the increasing fiscal pressure,once the fiscal crisis breaks out,the monetary authorities are likely to once again assume the heavy burden of filling the fiscal gap,which will cause inflation to rise and restrict economic growth.We should implement fiscal policy rules as soon as possible,regulate the financing of local government,strictly control the quasi-fiscal behaviors of financial system,continuously improve the scientificity of fiscal decision-making,gradually realize the transition from fiscal dominance to monetary dominance,and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and the independence of central bank.