利润率趋向下降与经济危机关系的新探索——基于1970—2011年美国的经济数据

The New Understanding about The Relationship between the Declining Tend of Profit Rate and Financial Crisis

马克思在"利润率趋向下降的规律"中阐明的是利润率下降与资本主义经济总体危机之间的必然联系,并不必然适用于每一次资本主义经济危机的分析。对于2001年以来经济危机酝酿阶段的实证研究表明,实际的经济运行方式与规律中所阐述的利润率变化趋势、利润率变化主导因素、资本技术构成变化趋势以及资本价值构成变化与利润率变化间的相互关系等诸方面均不一致。但通过对比观察1970年以来历次经济危机酝酿阶段与2008年经济危机酝酿阶段在以上方面表现出的异同,在很大程度上有助于解释2008年经济危机的发生根源,同时也有助于正确认识经济恢复的路径。

Marx＇ s in the law of the profit rates tending to decline state the necessary connection between the profit rates declining and the economic crisis of capitalism, but the connection is not apply to every analysis of the capitalist economic crisis. Empirical studies in the embryonic stage of the economic crisis since 2001 have shown that the actual way of economic operation are inconsistent with the trend of interest rate, the main factor of interest rate changing, the trend of capital structure and the connection between the capital structure changing and interest rate changing. By comparing the differences in the embryonic stage of different crisis which contributes to help us find the causes of the 2008 economic crisis, and know the paths of economic recovery.