基于BP神经网络的我国卫生总费用的预测研究

Based on BP Neural Network Prediction Research of Chinese Total Health Expenses

目的：预测我国“十二五”（除2011年）期间卫生总费用的发展趋势.方法：基于1978 ～2011年我国卫生总费用的时间序列数据,建立三层BP神经网络预测模型,预测2012～2015年期间我国卫生总费用数值;基于该预测结果,再计算2012～2015年我国卫生总费用占GDP的比重（2013 ～2015年GDP总值是以GDP、CPI年均增长分别为7.5％和5％的预期估算）.结果：2012～2015年间我国卫生总费用将呈逐年递增之势,平均增幅为8.71％;卫生总费用占GDP的比重,均达到了世界卫生组织提出的卫生总费用占GDP的比重不低于5％的基本要求.结论：“十二五”期间我国卫生总费用相对于GDP来说,比重仍在合理范围内,未超出国民经济承受能力.

Objective Forecast the developing tendency of Chinese Total Health Expenses （THE） during the Twelfth Five- Year Plan period （except 2011 ）. Methods Based on the time series data of Chinese THE （1978-2011） , three-layer BP neural network prediction model of Chinese THE was established, and can be used to predict Chinese THE from 2012 to 2015. On the basis of this prediction,the proportion of Chinese THE in Chinese GDP from 2012 to 2015 can be calculated as well （hypothesi- zing the GDP and CPI respectively increase yearly by 7.5% and 5% in 2013-2015）. Results： Chinese THE from 2012 to 2015 tends to increase year by year, with the average growth rate of 8.71%. Besides, its proportion in GDP will be over 5%, which meet the demand of WHO. Conclusion： During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, the proportion of Chinese THE in GDP is ap- propriate and acceptable.