中国通货膨胀预期方法评价

An Evaluation on Chinese Means Used in Inflation Expectation

通货膨胀预期是影响通货膨胀的重要因素,是描述通货膨胀动态问题的核心变量。如何准确预期通货膨胀是理论界和实务界都密切关注的问题。作者通过使用机构调查预测法、时间序列法和结构经济模型法对中国通货膨胀进行了预期,并在此基础上对各方法的预期结果进行详细的比较和评价。结果表明,就预期准确度而言,机构预期法表现更优,其次为结构经济模型,再次为时间序列法。此外,三种预期方法基本上都符合理性预期性质。因此,在中国的通货膨胀预期研究中,可以方便地将"朗润预测"结果作为通货膨胀预期值的代表变量。

Inflation expectation is important for controlling inflation, and it is the pivotal variable of describing dynamic inflation. How to forecast inflation expectation concerns theoretical and practical extents. This paper wants to predict Chinese inflation expectation by using professional prediction, time series prediction and structural eco-nomic model prediction, and evaluates them in details based on those predictions. The results show that profes-sional prediction performs better, followed by the structural economic model, and then the time series method.In addition, three kinds of forecast method are basically consistent with rational expectation. Therefore, for Chi-nese inflation expectation, ‘Langrun forecast' can be a representative value of Chinese inflation expectation.