我国居民生活用能能源效率回弹效应研究

Estimating the Rebound Effect for Household Energy Consumption in China

基于国际上已有研究成果,总结能源效率回弹效应定义的三种演化形式,即能源服务需求的能源效率弹性,能源服务需求的能源服务价格弹性以及能源需求的价格弹性。在数据获取局限的情况下,能源需求价格弹性是在中国进行居民生活用能回弹效应实证研究的理想定义。在考虑全国居民生活用能特征和城乡能源消费的差异以后,总结生活能源消费的影响因素,并建立多元线性回归计量经济学模型。经过E-G两步法协整检验确定变量间长期均衡关系,并得出长期回弹效应数值为0.27%。然后通过误差修正模型,计算出短期回弹效应数值为0.16%。由此说明,从宏观角度来看,我国居民生活用能能源效率回弹效应并不大。因此我国在居民生活能源消费领域应继续坚持已有的节能增效战略和路线,必要时可以以碳税、补贴清洁能源和阶梯电价等为手段,预防能源效率回弹效应的升高。

Based on the existing research results from foreign countries, the evolution of the three definitions of rebound effect was summarized, namely energy efficiency elasticity of energy service consumption, energy service price elasticity of energy service consumption, and energy price elasticity of energy consumption. In the circumstances of data access limitation, energy price elasticity of energy consumption is an ideal definition of rebound effect to do empirical study. After considering the characteristics of household energy consumption in the whole country and the differences of energy consumption between urban and rural life, the author summarized the key impact factors for the energy consumption, and used them as variables to build a multivariate linear regression econometric model. After using E-G two step cointegration test and building the ECM model, here comes the conclusion： the equilibrium relationships exist between variables, and the long-term rebound effect is 0.27%, short-term one is 0.16%. Therefore, in the macro perspective, the residents＇ household energy rebound effect aroused by efficiency improvement is small in China. It＇s essential to continue adhering to the existing energy strategy and conservation routine. With carbon tax, subsidizing clean energy and electricity price ladder, people could take precautions against the rise-up of the rebound effect.