喀斯特石漠化地区耕地压力动态变化分析与预测

Analysis and prediction of cultivated land pressure index in the Karst rock desertification

运用MATLAB软件,在计算贵州省2000—2011年耕地、人口、粮食产量动态变化的基础上,分析耕地面积、人口数量与耕地压力指数的变化特点;并采用DGM(1,1)离散预测模型对贵州省2015—2030年的耕地压力指数状况进行预测。结果表明,2000—2011年间,贵州省耕地总量及人均耕地面积持续减少;人均粮食产量持续增加,人口净流出加快,使得耕地压力指数波动减少,但耕地压力指数始终保持在1.0以上,粮食供给处于不安全状态;2015—2030年,耕地压力指数将持续减少,粮食安全形势缓和。增加农业科技投入、农田基本建设和土地整治工作与加快净流出人口数量,是减轻耕地压力、保证粮食安全的根本途径。

Based on calculating the dynamic change of land, population, grain output in 2000 -2011 by using MATLAB software, change characteristics of cultivated land area, population and the pressure index of cultivated land in Guizhou province were analyzed, and DGM （1,1） discrete model was used to forecast the cultivated land pressure index in 2015-2030. The results showed that the total cultivated land and per capita area of cultivated land continued decreasing, but the net outflow of population accelerated, at the same time the per capita grain output continued increasing, the cultivated land pressure index volatility reduced, cultivated land pressure index kept above 1.0, food supply was unsafe in Guizhou province in 2000-2011. The cultivated land pressure index will continue to reduce and the food security situation eases in 2015-2030. The result indicates that it is the basic way to reduce the pressure of cultivated land and ensure food security by increasing the agricultural investment in science and technology, strengthening the basic construction of farmland and land rectification work, speeding up the net outflow of population.