农户层面多子是否多福的数量经济新检验

Influence of Family Size Preference on the Enefit of Rural Family:An Empirical Study in China

利用2011年陕西省二市六县农户随机问卷调查数据,组成研究数据库。以农村家庭为研究单位,利用拓展的Mincer方程和logistic模型分别探讨家庭人口特征变量对家庭收入、家庭成员生活满意度和家庭城市化能力三个方面的影响。研究发现,家庭人口数与农村家庭年收入负相关,家庭劳动力的边际收入递减,家庭劳动力数与家庭城市化可能性负相关,家庭人口特征对家庭成员生活满意度的影响不显著。由此可以得出结论,农村家庭多子并不多福,但是表现出了明显的"养儿防老"的特征,值得关注。

Using data drawn from the farmer family survey eondueted in 2011 ,based on the rural family level, this paper investi- gates the influenee of family size variables on family income,life satisfaction,and family urbanization. Findings reveal that family size has negative effect for family＇s income,margin income for lab force is degressive ,only younger children can improve life satis- fy ,and more lab force in a rural family means lower ability or preference to move into a eity. We can conclude that more family size does not mean happier for a rural family,but family size preferenee reflects the measures of demand for safety for old person life.