新农保的储蓄挤出效应及其影响因素分析——基于两期代际扩展模型的应用

The Analysis of the Saving Crowding-out Effect of New Rural Social Endowment Insurance and Its Influencing Factors:Based on the Extension of The Intergenerational Model for Two Periods

新型农村养老保险制度的实施和持续发展,不仅具有维护农村居民社会养老保险权益公平性的社会作用,还能起到刺激农村消费需求增加从而促进农村经济发展的经济作用。通过两期代际扩展模型的应用,证明了新农保的实施对个体农户终身效用最大化下的最优储蓄存在挤出效应,其主要影响因素有:缴费年限、缴费比率、养老保险账户收益率和收入替代率等,并以此为基础,提出了完善新农保制度、促进其可持续发展的政策建议。

The implementation and sustainable development of the New Type of Rural Social Endowment Insurance not only play a social function of maintaining the fairness of social endowment insurance interests for rural residents, but also have eco- nomic effects on stimulating the rural consumer demands so as to promote rural economic development. Through the applica- tion of extension of the Intergenerational model for two periods, proves that the implementation of the New Type of Rural Social Endowment Insurance has crowding-out effects on optimal savings, and the main factors include payment period,payment rate ,and yield of endowment insurance account,as well as income replacement rate. Based on this ,policy recommendations are proposed to improve the new rural insurance system and promote its sustainable development.