新疆城乡居民收入差距预测与预警机制的设立

Forecasting and Early Warning Mechanisms of Income Gap between Urban and Rural Residents in Xinjiang

【目的】研究通过预测新疆城乡居民收入差距,设立城乡收入差距预警机制,以促进新疆经济、社会均衡发展。【方法】利用"灰色系统",用时间序列观测值建立灰色模型GM(1,1)对新疆城乡居民收入进行预测。【结果】从新疆城乡居民收入差距的时间序列看,新疆城乡居民收入相对差距呈下降趋势,而收入绝对差距却仍在不断增长。【结论】通过多元回归的方法对城乡收入差距的预警值进行计算,设立了城乡差距的预警机制。

[Objective] The income gap between urban and rural minority areas is widening.It has brought about economic and social problems.This research,through the prediction of Xinjiang income gap be tween urban and rural residents,aims to establish the early warning mechanism of the income gap between urban and rural areas,in the hope of promoting the local economic and social development in our region.[Method] Using ＂grey system＂ to establish the grey model GM （1,1） to forecast Xinjiang urban and rural residents＇income.[Result] From the time series of income gap between urban and rural residents in Xinjiang,the gap between them showed declining trend,but the absolute income gap is keeping widening.[Conclusion] By multiple regression analysis of the urban-rural income gap warning value calculated,the early warning mechanism of urban-rural income gap has been set up.