国内外主要畜产品与饲料价格分析

Price analysis of domestic and international major livestock and forage products

我国正处于食物结构转型期,畜产品需求增长强劲,但畜产品和饲料价格持续上涨且容易受其他因素影响。通过分析2008年9月-2013年8月国内、国际主要畜产品与饲料价格的变化规律、相关性和Granger因果关系,结果表明,国内外畜产品和饲料价格整体呈波动上升趋势,且"食草型"畜产品价格高于"耗粮型"畜产品价格,国内主要畜产品和饲料价格均高于国际;除猪肉和牛肉价格外,畜产品和饲料价格的波动幅度整体是国内小于国际;国内猪肉和牛肉价格波动幅度较大,国际是"食草型"畜产品波动幅度较大;国际大豆价格是国内大豆价格变化的原因;国内牛肉价格和羊肉价格是大豆价格变化的原因、国内牛肉价格是豆粕价格变化的原因、玉米价格是鸡肉价格变化的原因,国际牛肉价格是大豆价格变化的原因。由此可见,农业政策、节日效应和饮食习惯等是影响畜产品价格的主导因素;因此,发展草地农业是稳定畜产品价格和确保畜产品安全的有效途径;同时,加大对农牧户的直补力度,并为其生产提供政策支持和服务。

China now is in the transition period of food structure,accompanied by strong growth in demand for livestock products.The prices of livestock and forage products are generally rising and more easily influenced by other factors.Hence,the change rules,correlation and Granger Causality Test of the price of domestic and international major livestock and forage products from September 2008 to August 2013 are analyzed in this article.1） The prices of domestic and international livestock and forage products indicate an upward trends with fluctuations,while the prices of domestic and international ＂herbivorous＂ livestock products are higher than those of ＂grain consuming＂ and the prices of domestic major livestock and forage products are higher than the international ones; 2） Except the prices of domestic pork and beef,prices of domestic livestock products and forage fluctuate more than the international ones; 3） The domestic prices of pork and beef as well as the international prices of ＂herbivorous＂ livestock products show higher fluctuations.In addition,results of Granger Causality Test indicate that the changes of domestic soybean grain prices are caused by international soybean grain prices; the changes of domestic soybean grain prices are caused by domestic beef and mutton prices,the changes of domestic soybean meal prices are caused by domestic beef prices and the changes of domestic chicken prices are caused by domestic maize grain prices; the changes of international soybean grain and maize grain prices are caused by international beef prices.Above all,the prices of livestock products are signally affected by agricultural policies,festival and dietary habit.In conclusion,the study suggests that developing grassland agriculture is a way to stabilize the prices of livestock products and ensure the safety of livestock products; the country should increase direct subsidies to farm households and provide policy supports and services for their production.