通过性交通需求预测方法研究

Demand Forecasting Methods for Through Traffic

在分析通过性交通需求量影响因子的基础上,得到通过性交通需求量与道路等级、道路长度和道路负荷度(VIC)的关系,即通过性交通需求预测模型。研究结果表明,随着道路等级的提高、道路长度的增加以及道路负荷度的增大,通过性交通需求量增大。该结论可为交通影响评价过程中的背景交通需求预测提供理论依据和数据支撑,完善了交通影响评价方法。

On the basis of analyzing the impact factors about through traffic demand, the paper gets the re- lations between through traffic demand and the level, length and V/C of road. That is the traffic demand forecasting model. With the promotion of road grading, increasing of the length of road and the V/C, the demand of through traffic is increasing. The solution provides the theoretical basis and data for the back- ground traffic demand forecast in the process of traffic impact analysis, and perfects the methods of traffic impact analysis.