世界稀土生产与消费结构分析

Analysis of Global Rare Earth Production and Consumption Structure

世界主要稀土储藏国有中国、俄罗斯、美国、澳大利亚和印度,世界最主要的稀土矿物是氟碳铈矿、独居石和离子吸附型稀土矿。由于世界各国在稀土储量分布以及稀土生产与消费之间存在不平衡问题,为了揭示世界稀土储藏、生产与消费结构中存在的问题,梳理了二十多年来世界主要生产与消费国家的储藏量、生产量与消费量历史数据,通过对历史数据的对比分析、一元线性回归分析预测,表明世界稀土主要矿种的生产量与储藏量之间存在严重不平衡问题,稀土元素供求不平衡的问题也将会加剧。由于在2014年以前,除澳大利亚、美国的稀土矿山开采并供应外,其他国家不可能供应更多的稀土矿产品,在2014年以前,依然以中国供应为主导,但到2015年以后,中国稀土产量占世界的总产量有望降低,在不久的将来,世界生产依赖中国单边供应格局将会改变,中国稀土产量占世界的总产量有望降到70%左右。未来的10至15年世界稀土消费,每年对稀土元素钕、镝、铕、铽以及钇分别以16%、16%、27%、30%和30%的速度增长,可以预测这些元素将面临供应短缺,这些稀土元素供求的不平衡将加剧。

The world＇s rare earth resources are mainly held by China,Russia,the United State,Australia and India. Ores containing rare earth elements are mainly bastnasite,monozite and ion adsorption clays. There is a difference between rare earth resources,production and consumption in different countries. In the paper the data about rare earth resource,production and consumption in major countries over the past two decades were summarized and analyzed. The comparative analysis and linear regression analyses indicate that there exists a substantial imbalance between major rare earth production and reserves in the world and supply- demand imblalance in some rare earth elements will grow in the future. Since the fact that before 2014there is no possibility for other countries except China,the United states and Australia to supply more rate earth products,China will dominate the supply market. However,the radio of rare earth production in China to the total blobal rare earth production will decrease after 2015. As the USGS（ The United States Geological Survey） predicts,in the near future,the framework of depending mainly on China＇s output will change,the ratio of rare earth production in China to the total global rare earth production is supposed to decrease. In the following 10 to 15 years,demands for neodymium,dysprosium,europium,terbium and yttrium will increase at 16%,16%,27%,30 and 30% yearly,respectively. Accordingly,these elements will be short in supply in the ruture,and in turn,the imbalance between the demand and supply of these elements will become greater.