天津市海陆产业系统耦合协调发展研究

Marine-land industrial systematic coupling and coordinated development in Tianjin

为探寻产业绿色化发展的路径,提出海陆产业系统耦合的概念,并构建海陆产业系统耦合协调评价指标体系,在对两个子系统综合评价的基础上,建立了二者之间的耦合协调模型,测度了天津2000-2010年海陆产业系统的耦合度和协调度,分析了海陆产业系统的互动关系,并运用GM(1,1)模型对未来海陆产业系统的发展状况进行了预测。研究表明:(1)2000-2010年,天津海陆产业系统耦合度很高,一直处于高水平耦合状态;(2)2000-2010年,天津海陆产业系统协调度稳步提高,先后经历了勉强协调发展、初级协调发展和中级协调发展三个阶段;(3)天津海洋产业系统和陆域产业系统对耦合系统发展的功效贡献具有时序规律,各子系统自身演化过程经历了"S"型的周期性变化。

In order to explore into the path of industrial green development,we proposed the concept of marine land industrial systemic coupling,and constructed an evaluation index system of industrial systemic coupling and coordination.Based on the comprehensive evaluation of these two sub systems,a coupling coordinated model was constructed and the coupling and coordination degree of Tianjin marine-land system during 2000 ～ 2010 were measured.In addition,the interactive relationship of Tianjin marine-land system was analyzed and its future development was predicted by using GM（1,1） model.The research indicated that：（1） The coupling degree of marine-land industry was quite high and had always been under high level phrase during 2000 to 2010;（2） The overall coordination level of marine-land industrial system had been under steady progress,which experienced the phrase of barely coordination,initial coordination,and intermediate coordination successively from 2000 to 2010;（3） The contribution that marine-land industrial systems had made to the coupling systemic development had temporal laws,and the evolution process of each subsystem had been through an ＂ S＂ type periodic variation.