甘肃省能源消耗与经济增长的关系研究及能源消耗预测

Relationship of energy consumption with economic growth in Gansu province

脱钩理论是西方学者针对经济增长对物质消耗的依赖度提出的。文中运用脱钩指数评价甘肃省经济增长与能源消耗之间的脱钩关系,应用历史数据分析预测甘肃省2020年的能源消耗总量,同时测算出了实现甘肃省节能规划的能源消耗目标的脱钩指数。结果表明:近20年来,甘肃省经济增长与能源消耗的脱钩指数一直呈现下降的态势,主要是产业结构效应、政策宏观调控和新能源开发利用的共同作用的结果;实现2015年能源消耗控制总量的脱钩指数只有维持在低于0.163的水平,才有可能实现总量目标;按照这一脱钩指数,2015、2020年甘肃省的能源消耗总量将为10601.92万吨、18684.21万吨。因此,在保证经济增长的同时实现甘肃省节约能源规划目标,则必须继续在产业结构、能源结构、政策调控、新能源开发上继续努力。

Decoupling theory is a theoretical approach put forward in the process of measuring the relationship between economic growth and substance consumption by international researchers in the western scholars.This study used the decoupling index to evaluate the economy growth and energy consumption in Gansu by appling historical data analysis and forecast the total energy consumption in 2020.Besides,we calculated the decoupling index of achieving the energy consumption target with the energy conservation plan.The results showed that nearly 20 years,the decoupling index of economic growth and energy consumption in Gansu Province took on decline trend because of industry structure adjusting,policy of macroscopical adjusting control and new energy development and utilization of the result of joint action.It is possible to have target of total energy consumption control in 2015,when decoupling index is less than 0.163.In accordance with this decoupling index,the total energy consumption in Gansu Province will be 186842100 tons in 2020.At the same time,to ensure economic growth and realize energy conservation planning objectives in Gansu province,Gansu province must continue to strive in the industrial structure,policy regulation and the development of new energy.