资源枯竭型城市生态安全评价及趋势分析——以焦作市为例

Urban ecological safety evaluation and trend analysis for resource-exhausted city: A case of Jiaozuo City

资源枯竭型城市普遍面临着生态环境恶化问题。文中基于"压力-状态-响应"概念模型,建立了典型资源枯竭型城市生态安全评价指标体系。利用集对分析理论从同异反三个方面综合考虑事物的确定和不确定因素的优势,建立了资源枯竭型城市生态安全评价模型和发展趋势模型。以煤炭资源型城市-焦作市为例,分析了该市1999～2010年间的生态安全状况。结果表明:焦作市的生态系统在1999～2007年间属于"较不安全"状态,2008～2010年属于"临界安全"状态。总体上看,该市生态安全状况整体上呈现逐年改善的趋势,但是有待于进一步改善。集对分析法能够综合考虑城市生态系统中的确定性和不确定性信息,是一种有效的城市生态安全的评价方法。

The deterioration of ecological environment in resource-exhausted cities has hindered the sustainable development of these cities.Based on Pressure-State-Response model,we constructed an evaluation index system of ecological safety for resource-exhausted cities.Based on set pair analysis（SPA） theory,we introduced the identity-discrepancy-contrary connection degree formula which can embody certainties and uncertainties in urban ecological safety evaluation and established urban ecological safety evaluation model and development trend model.As an example,we evaluated ecological safety conditions of Jiaozuo city from 1999 to 2010.The results show that ecological system of Jiaozuo belonged to ＂ relatively unsafe＂ grade from 1999 to 2007 and ＂ critically safe＂ grade from 2008 to 2010.As a whole,urban ecological safety conditions of Jiaozuo improved steadily during the period but needed to be improved.SPA method embodied certainties and uncertainties in urban ecological system and provided a new way to evaluate urban ecological safety.