基于生态足迹的塔里木盆地人口与水土资源协调发展研究

Coordination development of population and water and land resources in Tarim Basin based on ecological footprint

研究塔里木盆地生态赤字的动态变化,为政府部门合理规划塔里木盆地人与自然和谐发展提供依据,运用生态足迹和适度人口模型,计算了塔里木盆地2002-2010年的生态足迹、生态承载力和适度人口规模,并将其与现实人口进行对比分析。结果表明:2010年塔里木盆地人均生态资源需求明显大于人均生态资源供给,生态处于不可持续状态。动态来看,2002-2010年间,塔里木盆地适度人口规模与实际人口数反向变化,生态赤字呈扩大趋势,赤字人口从2002年的166.83万人大幅增加到2010年的569.26万人,人类对耕地、草地和化石能源用地的开发和利用超出了其生态承载力的阈值,塔里木盆地人口与资源环境协调性在下降。认为这是塔里木盆地人口增长、人均生态资源需求增加的反向影响,以及技术进步、资源利用效率提高的正向影响共同作用的结果。

Research on the dynamic change of ecological deficit in the Tarim Basin is important for government to reasonably plan the harmonious development of man and nature.We calculated ecological footprint,ecological capacity and moderate population scale between 2002 and 2010 in Tarim Basin in the use of the model of ecological footprint and moderate population,and contrasted it with actual population.The results indicated：in 2010 per capita ecological resources demanded in Tarim Basin was significantly greater than the per capita ecological resources supply,ecology was in an unsustainable situation.Between 2002 and 2010,the moderate population scale and the actual number of population in Tarim Basin had changed in the reverse,the ecological deficit was shown a trend of expansion,deficit of population was greatly increased from 1668.3×103 in 2002 to 5692.6×103 in 2010.Human beings had exceeded their threshold value of ecological capacity for the development and utilization of farmland,grassland and energy land,the harmony of human beings and resources environment in Tarim Basin were declining.It was the result of joint action by population growth,per capita ecological resource demand increase,as well as the technology progress which improved resource utilization efficiency.