改革开放以来中国经济周期波动特征与形成机制分析

The Analysis of the Formation Mechanism and the Cyclical Characteristics of China's Economic Fluctuations since Reform and Opening up

经济周期波动特征研究既是现实经济运行状况的真实反应,也是经济危机监测与预警机制的前提与基础。利用CF滤波法对1978—2010年间中国经济中主要宏观经济变量进行去势处理,考察了产出的周期波动特征,并以此参照系对改革开放以来国民经济运行展开分析。研究发现,改革开放以来中国经济的周期性波动特征明显,前后共经历了五轮经济波动。根据市场经济体制的确立时间和经济周期波动特点,可以将1978—2010年划分为改革探索时期和改革深化时期。就前者而言,经济周期波动的核心特征是高增长与通货膨胀,政府调节经济主要依靠行政手段,调控的重点是如何抑制需求的过度扩张;就后者论,经济波动的核心特征是流动性过剩、有效需求不足与通货紧缩,政府对经济的调节以间接宏观经济政策为主,调控的重点转变为启动内需。经济周期波动特征、政府调控方式和调控重点的演变反映了改革开放以来中国国民经济结构、宏观经济环境和经济运行机制的变化。

Economic fluctuations characteristics is not only the true reflection of realistic economic situation, but aim form the premise and foundation o~ economic crisis naonitoring and early warning mechanisms. This paper uses CF filtering method handles the key rnacrocconomic variable of China economy between 1978 and 2010, studies the cyclical fluctuation characteristics of output, and as reference for analyze the national economy operational state. The transformation of China＇s economic cyclical fluctuations characteristics significantly, total experiencing five round economic fluctuation~ According to the time of market economic system established and the characteristics of economic fluctuations, we divided the transition period into the stage of opening up exploratory stage and the deepening reform stage. The core features of the previous stage of the economic cycle fluctuations is high growth and inflation, government regulate the economy mainly through administrative mearLs, the focus of regulation is how to suppress the excessive expansion of demand; the core feature of later stage of economic cycle fluctuations is current excess, lack of effective demand and deflation, government regulate the economy mainly through indirect macroeconomic policy, the focus of regulation is how to start domestic demand. The shift of economic cycle fluctuations features, the focus of government regulation reflects China＇s economic structure, nmcroeconomic environment and economic operation mechanism chatuzes since the reform and onening up.