天津市碳排放预测及低碳经济发展对策分析——基于改进GM(1,1)模型

Prediction of Carbon Emissions and Countermeasure Analysis of the Low-Carbon Economic Development in Tianjin ——Based on GM(1,1) Optimization Model

基于灰色预测理论对GM(1,1)模型进行改进。选取天津市2000—2011年碳排放数据并利用Kaya恒等式测算碳排放量,进而对天津市碳排放量进行中短期预测。结果表明:改进GM(1,1)模型具有较高的预测精度,适合进行中短期预测。同时,针对较严峻的碳排放形势,提出了天津市"十二五"期间发展低碳经济的对策。

Based on grey prediction theory, the GM （ 1,1 ） model is optimized, and carbon emissions data of Tianjin from 2000 to 2011 is chosen to predict the short-term carbon emissions. The result shows that, GM （1,1） optimization model improves the precision greatly, and is suitable for short- term prediction. And countermeasure is proposed to develop low-carbon economy during the 12th five- year-plan against the severe situation.