摘要
China's male marriage squeeze and its potential consequence have attracted much attention and given rise to debate, but most studies contribute this squeeze to sex structure and neglect the age structure, and some studies use fl awed method to study the contribution of age structure in this squeeze. In this paper we develop an indicator of Spousal Sex Ratio(SSR) and apply a decomposition method into age and sex structure. Based on the data from China's 2010 census and projection, we predict that from 2010 to 2020, the age structure will be the dominant factor for China's male marriage squeeze, and from 2020 to 2034, the contribution of sex structure will be increasing, whereas that of age structure will be decreasing. From 2034 to 2045, China's male marriage squeeze will mainly from imbalanced sex structure, and the age structure will contribute little or negatively to China's male marriage squeeze.
China＇s male marriage squeeze and its potential consequence have attracted much attention and given rise to debate, but most studies contribute this squeeze to sex structure and neglect the age structure, and some studies use flawed method to study the contribution of age structure in this squeeze. In this paper we develop an indicator of Spousal Sex Ratio （SSR） and apply a decomposition method into age and sex structure. Based on the data from China＇s 2010 census and projection, we predict that from 2010 to 2020, the age structure will be the dominant factor for China＇s male marriage squeeze, and from 2020 to 2034, the contribution of sex structure will be increasing, whereas that of age structure will be decreasing. From 2034 to 2045, China＇s male marriage squeeze will mainly from imbalanced sex structure, and the age structure will contribute little or negatively to China＇s male marriage squeeze.
