中国粮食进出口现状及未来增加进口可行性分析

Import and Export Situation of China's Grain and Feasibility of Increasing Imports in the Future

分析了过去10年中国玉米、小麦、大米进口及出口状况。在概括全球玉米、小麦、水稻生产情况的基础上,预计未来全球粮食产量、出口量将会继续增加。对全球粮食主要出口国和进口国情况作了介绍,预计未来阿根廷、巴西和乌克兰玉米出口潜力较大;俄罗斯、乌克兰和澳大利亚小麦出口潜力较大;泰国和越南大米出口潜力较大。预计未来中国口粮(大米)增加进口的难度较大,饲用粮食(玉米)增加进口相对容易,未来国际小麦贸易量波动较大,增加进口需要选择合适时机。

This paper analyzed import and export situation of China＇s maize, wheat and rice during the last decade. On the basis of summarizing production of global maize, wheat and rice, world grain production and export volume are expected to continue increasing in the future. Under the premise of introducing global major grain exporters and importers, it is expected that export potential of maize is larger in Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine in the future, export potential of wheat is greater in Russia, Ukraine and Australia, export potential of rice is larger in Thailand and Vietnam. It＇s difficult to increase China＇s ration especially rice, while it＇s relatively easy to increase feed grain especially maize, and intemational wheat trade will fluctuate compara- tively sharply in the future, so increasing import needs to choose the right time.