摘要
2013年国内外玉米产量均显著增长,国内外玉米供需形势得到明显改善。其中,国内玉米产出增长5.9%,全球玉米增长11.75%。国际玉米价格从2013年6月以来不断下降,降幅高达44.4%。由于2014年全球经济依然缓慢复苏,物价总水平将基本保持稳定。因此,在2014年主要粮食生产国不发生重大自然灾害的情况下,全球粮食产量将继续增长,粮食供需形势将进一步改善,国际玉米价格预计将进一步回落。国内外玉米价差将明显加大,进口压力将显著提高。
The maize production increased remarkably by 5.9% in China and 11.75% globally in 2013, which alleviated the stress between supply and demand. Consequently, COBT maize price has dropped continuously and significantly by 44.4% since June 2013. As global economy is expected to recover slowly in 2014, global commodities price will remain stable. If grain production in major producers doesn＇t decline sharply caused by extreme weather, global grain supply will continue to rise and the situation of supply and demand will be bettter in 2014. According to many projections, the global maize price will drop further in 2014. The price gap between domestic and global maize will enlarge, which will lead to import pressure increase in 2014.
出处
《农业展望》
2014年第2期4-8,共5页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
国家玉米产业技术体系(nycytx-02)
中国科学院重点部署项目"周边国家及全球资源环境科学数据库建设与决策支持研究"(KZZD-EW-08-04)
关键词
玉米价格
供需水平
生产成本
maize price
supply-demand situation
production cost
