基于IPCC排放清单和LEAP模型的山西省CO_2排放研究

Study on CO_2 emissions in Shanxi Province base on IPCC listing and LEAP model

山西省是中国重要的重工业能源基地,温室气体排放量位居中国前列,减排压力巨大。采用《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》的修正性方法,测算并分析了近年来山西省能源消费的CO2排放情况,并以山西省CO2排放大户——火电行业为例,构建长期能源替代规划系统(LEAP)模型,研究了火电行业实施CO2减排的技术措施。结果表明:(1)2001—2011年,山西省CO2排放呈现出持续快速增长态势,在中国占比较大;(2)能源消费构成不合理与产业结构不均衡是山西省CO2低排放缺陷正在快速加剧的主要原因;(3)火电行业短期内较有效的减排措施主要为提高管理水平以及传统火电机组改造扩容,从中长期看,则更多需要依靠技术进步。同时,针对山西省CO2排放特点提出了相关的应对措施与建议,以期为有关部门制定山西省低碳经济发展策略提供参考。

Shanxi Province is an important heavy industrial base in our country, its greenhouse gas emissions ranked the forefront of China, so it faces the huge pressure of emission reduction. Using the 2006 IPCC national green- house gas inventory guide corrective method,this paper calculates and analyses the energy consumption COz emission in Shanxi Province in recent years,and a case study of thermal power industry in Shanxi Province is used to construct the LEAP model. Simultaneously,the technical measures for carbon emission reduction of thermal power industry are researched. The results show that：（1）During the 2001-2011,carbon emissions in Shanxi Province has shown sustained rapid growth,it contribute large proportion of carbon emissions in China; （2）the unreasonable energy consumption structure and the unbalanced industrial structure is the main causes of the rapidly increasing of low COz-emitting de- fect in Shanxi Province; （3）as to the power industry, in the short-term expert, effective measures is to improve the management level of power industry and the traditional thermal power plant expansion,from a long-term perspective, the power industry emissions needs to rely on technological progress. At the same time, this paper puts forward rele- vant countermeasures and suggestions for Shanxi carbon emission characteristics,so as to provide reference for rele- vant departments of Shanxi to formulate the development strategy of low carbon economy.