基于空间计量模型的安徽城镇化发展与农民增收实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Urbanization Development and Farmers' Income Growth in Anhui Province Based on Spatial Econometric Model

运用探索性空间数据分析方法测算安徽省农民收入与城镇化发展的空间自相关性和局部集聚空间格局演变,在此基础上分别建立2000年和2010年城镇化发展与农民收入关系的空间杜宾模型和空间滞后模型,研究城镇化发展对农民增收的影响程度和变化趋势。结果表明,安徽农村居民收入存在正的空间自相关性,低收入集聚区自安徽西部向西北部转移,高收入集聚区随皖江城市带"两点一轴线"蔓延;城镇化发展在局域呈现以淮北为"极点"和巢湖为"洼地"的格局;运用空间计量模型分析显示农民收入空间溢出效应能够显著促进农民增收,避免经典回归忽视空间因素导致对影响程度的高估,城镇化发展有助于农民增收,2010年较2000年作用程度增长188.67%,对工资性收入增长的带动作用更强,而农业产业结构单一不利于农民收入提升,特别是缺少非农就业机会,制约农民工资性收入增长。

By using the exploratory spatial data analysis method, the spatial autocorrelation of the farmers＇ income and urbanization development in Anhui Province and the evolution of local agglomeration spatial pattern is measured, based on which, the spatial Tobit models and spatial lag models for the relation between the urbanization development and farmers＇ income in 2000 and 2010 were built respectively, and the impact of the urbanization development on farmers＇ income and the changing trend is studied. The result shows that the rural residents＇ income in Anhui Province presents a positive spatial autocorrelation, the low-income agglomeration area has transferred from the west area of Anhui to the northwest area, and the high-income agglomeration area extends along the ＂two points and one axis＂ of the urban belt in Anhui Province along the Yangtze fiver; the urbanization development presents a pattern with Huaibei as the ＂pole＂ and with Chaohu as the ＂low-lying land＂; the spatial econometric model is used to analyze and show that the spatial spillover effect of farmers＇ income can significantly help increases the farmers＇ income and avoid the overestimation of impact in the classical regression model due to ignoring the spatial elements, and the urbanization development can help the farmers increase their income, comparing to 2000, its impact increased by 188.67% in 2010. While the single agricultural structure does not benefit the increase of farmers＇ income, especially the lack of non-agricultural employment opportunities has restricted the growth of farmers＇ wage income.