甘肃省农地利用碳排放测算及影响因素研究

Research on Characteristics and Driving Factors of Agricultural Land Carbon Emission in Gansu Province

利用2000-2011年甘肃省农业投入的六大类碳源相关数据,对甘肃省历年农地利用碳排放量进行测算。分析得出:从2000年起,甘肃省农地利用碳排放量和碳排放强度分别以年均6.0%和5.8%的增速上升。六类碳源中,化肥、农药、农膜、柴油、翻耕和灌溉碳排放量的年均增速分别为2.8%,17.7%,7.6%,5.4%,0.3%,1.1%。运用LMDI模型对农地利用碳排放的影响因素进行分析,结果表明:从2001-2011年,由生产效率、产业结构、经济水平和劳动力规模变化所引起的碳排放增量比分别为:-15.18%、-4.46%、44.19%和0.34%。由此表明,农业生产效率和产业结构对碳排放具有抑制作用,劳动力规模虽具有一定的促进作用,但作用较小,而农业经济水平是导致甘肃省农业碳排量增加的主导因素。最后根据以上结果,对甘肃省农地利用碳减排提出对策建议。

Based on six kinds of main carbon sources from agricultural production, this research calculates the carbon emission of agricultural land in Gansu Province from 2000 to 201 l. The result shows that the average annual growth rate of agricultural land carbon emission and carbon intensity increased by 6.0% and 5.8% since 2000, respectively. Among the six carbon sources of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, plastic sheeting, diesel, tillage and irrigation, the average annual growth rates of the carbon emission was 2.8%, 17.7%, 7.6%, 5.4%, 0.3%, and 1.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the factors which could affect the carbon emission are analyzed by the model of LMDI. Result shows that the incremental proportion of carbon emission caused by productivity, industrial structure, economic level and labor force was -15.18%, -4.46%, 44.19%, and 0.34% from 2000 to 2011, respectively, which indicates that the efficiency and structure mainly restrain the carbon emission, however, the labor force was one of the factors to increase carbon emission, which is not obviously. Actually, the level of agricultural economy was the dominant factor to increase carbon emission in Gansu. Finally, some policy suggestions are proposed to reduce agricultural land use carbon emissions for Gansu Province.