摘要
对武都区北峪河流域泥石流的形成条件进行详细阐述。调查了区域内历次山洪、泥石流灾害发生时间以及发生泥石流灾害前的相关降雨量数据,通过对该区域的气象水文资料研究和成灾降雨量规律的统计,发现泥石流发生时过程降雨量与时间呈对数关系的规律,并利用该规律对泥石流成灾过程降雨量进行了拟合,分析了拟合的精度,利用拟合的成灾过程降雨量计算出成灾前期有效降雨量。进一步对降雨规律和成灾前期有效降雨量分析得到,该区域雨水主要以暴雨方式进行降落,当前期有效降雨量超过20mm时,发生泥石流灾害的概率比较大,应该进行泥石流灾害预警。
Formation conditions of the debris flow in Wudu District, North yu River Basin were in detailed description. All previous flash floods and mudslides disaster time in the area and related rainfall data which was before the debris flow disaster were surveyed. Based on the regional meteorological hydrological data and the law of rainfall disaster statistics, the logarithmic relationship law of the process of the rainfall and time was found. Trough this law, the debris flow disaster process of rainfall were fitted to analyze the fitting accuracy and according to the fitted value of rainfall of disaster process, calculates disaster effective antecedent rainfall. By further analysis of rainfall patterns and disaster effective antecedent rainfall, two consequences are resulted： The main area of rain falling is in heavy rain manner;When the antecedent effective rainfall is more than 20 mm, the probability of debris flow hazards is larger, the debris flow should be alert.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2014年第3期25-27,30,共4页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
关键词
泥石流
成灾
前期有效降雨量
北峪河
debris flow~ Disaster^anteeedent effective rainfall~ North yu river
