摘要
以处于贵州黔东南的沅江水系为研究对象,以1960-2011年52年降雨量作为建模数据,开展该区域的年度干旱特征和变化规律研究。在旱情趋势预测时,选取灰色系统理论,以GM(1,1)模型建模,并采用残差检验和后验差检验对模型精度进行了检验,检验结果表明:所建立的模型,预测精度好。在此基础上,开展了干旱年预测分析,并对未来几年的干旱发生年份做出了预测。
TheYuanjiang Water System of Guizhou Province is used as the research object from 1960 to 2011 in 52 years rainfall as the modeling data. The regional annual drought characteristics and change rules were carried out. When the drought trend was forecast, the grey system theory and modeling for GM （1, 1） model was selected, and the residual test and posterior error test were used to carry out model precision inspection, inspection results show that the prediction precision is good for the established model. On this basis, a forecast analysis was made of the drought year, and the drought years have been predicted for the next few years.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2014年第3期48-51,53,共5页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家公益性行业(农业)科研专项(201303125)
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目资助(201201025)
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目资助(201301039)
关键词
贵州沅江水系
灰色预测模型GM(1
1)
预测干旱年份
Yuanjiang Water System in Guizhou Province
gray prediction model GM（1,1）
predicting drought year
