基于可计算一般均衡模型的中国碳税政策模拟

The Impact of CGE-Based Carbon Tax on China's Economy

减少二氧化碳温室气体排放是各国都要面临的共同任务之一,征收碳税是积极应对气候变化和促进节能减排的有效政策工具。利用可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),探讨了实施碳税政策对中国各行业的温室气体排放及宏观经济影响。模拟结果显示,征收碳税是一种可行的政策选择,对温室气体的排放有明显的抑制作用。碳税的征收方法要本着公平公正的原则在全社会统一进行。碳税的税率不宜过高,当碳税征收在20元每吨标准煤时,二氧化碳排放减少了4.3%,GDP相对上升3.4%,适度地征收碳税可以促进经济总量的提升,在传统能源生产和消耗型产业适度降低生产规模的条件下换来了第三产业的高速发展。

The reduction of carbon dioxide emissions of greenhouse gases is the common task of all countries in our world. Carbon tax is a positive response to climate change and promote energy conservation effective policy tool. In this paper, we discuss the implementation of the carbon tax policy on China＇s greenhouse gas emissions and macroeconomic impact based on computable general equilibrium model （CGE）. Our model show that levying carbon tax is a viable policy option. Carbon tax levy approach must be based on the principles of fairness and justice in the whole society unified. Carbon tax rate is not too high, when the carbon tax of 20 yuan per ton of standard coal, the carbon dioxide emissions by 4.3%, GDP relative rise 3.4%. When the carbon tax reaches the international medium level （20 Yuan per ton）, China can have effectively reduced greenhouse gas emissions and promote the development of China＇s tertiary industry.