浙江省能源消费碳排放动态特征及影响因素研究

Study on the Dynamic Characteristics and the Influential Factors of Energy-related Carbon Emissions in Zhejiang of China

采用IPCC推荐的碳排放计算公式,测算了2000年到2011年浙江省能源消费碳排放量,分析了人均碳排放量和碳排放强度的动态特征,并利用LMDI分析其排放变化的影响因素。研究期间,浙江省人均能源消费碳排放量不断上升,碳排放强度呈现下降的趋势,浙江省碳排放处于碳排放强度倒U型曲线高峰到人均碳排放量倒U型曲线高峰阶段的过渡期。经济发展对人均碳排放量增长起到拉动作用,产业结构、能耗强度、能源结构、碳排放系数变化起到抑制作用。产业结构、能耗强度和单位能源消耗碳排放强度变化均对碳排放强度下降产生正向驱动作用。

The thesis adopts IPCC formula to calculate Zhejiang＇s energy consumption carbon emissions of 11 years from 2000 to 2011. By exploring LMDI method, the thesis also analyses the dynamic features of per capita carbon emissions as well as its intensity and further explores the influential factors to the changes. During the period of research, per capita carbon discharge in Zhejiang province has been on a gradual increase while the intensity of carbon emission has seen a trend of descending. The overall situation of carbon emissions in the province is experiencing a transition from intensity inverted U peak to per capita inverted U peak. Economy plays an important part in driving per capita carbon emissions while other factors such as industrial structure, energy consumption intensity, energy structure and carbon emission coefficient inhibit the increase of per capita carbon emission, and which are positive roles in reducing carbon emission intensity.