中日韩FTA贸易潜力研究

Study on FTA Trade Potentialities among China,Japan and South Korea

后金融危机时期,中日韩区域经济合作机制迈向一个新的发展阶段。中日韩三国签署国际投资协定,自由贸易区建设势在必行。本文基于较长时间跨度(1992—2011年)中日韩三国区域内贸易数据,研究三国区域内贸易总量和贸易产品结构,运用拓展贸易引力模型重点研究中日韩FTA贸易流量与发展潜力问题,实证研究结论对于加速中日韩自由贸易区建设进程,提升三国经贸合作水平具有重要意义。

In post financial crisis period, the regional economic cooperation mechanism among China, Japan and South Korea reaches a new development stage, as a result, the international investment agreement among China, Japan and South Korea is signed and it is possible to build a free trade zone among the three countries. This paper studies total trade quantity and trade products structure in the regions of the three countries based on trade data of the three countries in a long time during 1992-2011, and emphatically studies FTA trade flow rate and development potential among the three countries by using expansive trade gravity model. The empirical research conclusion is of important significance to accelerating the construction of free trade zone among Chi- na, Japan and South Korea and to promoting economic and trade cooperation level of the three countries.