基于信息扩散理论的福建省森林火灾风险评估

Risk Assessment of Forest Fire in Fujian Province Based on Information Diffusion Theory

以福建省1998-2011年的森林火灾统计数据为基础,应用信息扩散理论的模糊数学方法,建立森林火灾风险评价模型,从森林火灾发生率、重大火灾次数和受害面积三个指标对福建省森林火灾风险进行定量评估.结果表明福建省年森林火灾发生率主要集中在10次以下,年重大森林火灾主要集中在12次以内,受害森林面积发生在3 600hm2时概率最高,森林火灾受害面积相对分散,且近年来福建省森林火灾有明显的增加趋势.最后,基于孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体对福建省森林火灾风险进行定性分析,以揭示福建森林火灾发生规律,以期为相关部门制定防灾减灾政策提供科学依据.

Based on the data of forest fire from 1998 to 2002 in Fujian Province, the assessment model on risk of forest fire was built by the information diffusion theory, and a quantitative assessment of forest fire risk was made from three indicators such as annual incidence of forest fire, major forest fire and damaged area of forest fire in Fujian Province. The results show that forest fires in Fujian Province were within a frequency of 10 times; annual heavy forest fires were no more than 12 times; when the damaged area of forest fire reached to 3 600 hmz, the probability was the highest; the damaged area of forest fire happened with a diffused distributions and recently forest fire in Fujian Province have showed a obvious increasing tendency. In order to reveal the rule of incidence of forest fire in Fujian Province, a qualitative analysis on the risk of forest fire was made from the pregnant disaster environment, disaster-inducing factors and withstand disaster objects, which can provide a scientific basis for the related department to develop effective policies to prevent and mitigate disaster.