“2013．6．27-29”鹰潭市连续性暴雨过程分析

Process analysis of Yingtan continuous torrential rain on Jun.27-29,2013

使用常规天气、WebGIS雷达拼图、风廓线雷达和自动气象站等资料，采用物理描述、统计和对比分析等方法，对2013年6月27-29日鹰潭市出现的连续性大暴雨过程，就其对流性降水和持续性降水阶段的环流背景、中尺度系统、雷达回波特征、风廓线雷达特征，以及强降水特征进行分析，结果表明：27～29日的降水分为3个阶段，27日的强对流阶段中，热力、水汽条件均为最高，抬升条件较弱，强降水点分布零散，单点短时降水雨强大；28、29日热力条件近似，短时强降水点较多，区域平均降水量大；宜春风廓线雷达显示，西南急流的加强对鹰潭一带下游降水回波的加强有1～2h的提前预示作用，若同时有低压环流向下游移动，则预示作用更明显；大气低层的切变线和地面辐合线相交处，有利于对流单体生成和发展，良好的热力和水汽条件以及较大的垂直风切变有利于回波强度维持和发展。

By using routine synoptic data, Web GIS radar mosaic products, wind profiler products and meteorological elements from AWS with adopting methods of physical description, statistics and contrast analysis, the circulation background, mesoscale system, radar echo characteristic, wind profiler echo characteristic and heavy precipitation characteristic of the convective rain and persistent rain are analyzed respectively during the process of Yingtan continuous torrential rain on Jun. 27-29,2013. The results show that the precipitation is divided into 3 stages on Jun. 27-29. The thermal and vapour conditions are the highest on June 27, the lifting condition is weak, short time heavy precipitation is dispersed and strong in single-spot. The thermal condition is similar on Jun. 28,29. There are more short time severe precipitation and heave average precipitation. Yichun wind profiler radar shows that the strengthen of the southwest jet stream can indicate the strengthen of radar precipitation echo of the downstream in Yingtan in advance for one to two hours. If it is associated with depression moving to the east, the strengthen will be more obvious. The interchange area of the low-layer shear line and the surface convergence line is in favor of genesis and development of convection cell. Great thermal and vapour conditions and stronger wind shear will help to maintain and develop echo intensity.