中国加入“区域全面经济伙伴关系”的经济效应——基于GTAP模型的模拟分析

The Economic Effects of China's Participation in RCEP:Based on the GTAP Model

本文运用GTAP模型,模拟RCEP完全建成时区域内外主要国家和地区的宏观经济效应、贸易效应以及产业效应,特别是对中国可能产生的影响。结果显示,RCEP建成后,就GDP、进出口、社会福利等总体指标来看,绝大多数国家和地区都将收益于关税减让而得到显著提升。对中国而言,贸易区域、商品结构和贸易方式均受到不同程度的影响;而产业层面的积极效应显著,但同时对采掘业、机械电子与运输以及服务业有较大冲击。根据研究结果,论文最后分别从国家和产业层面提出了相关政策建议。

We cast analysis on the macroeconomic effects, trade effects and industrial effects of RCEP on major countries and regions inside and outside of the RCEP, particularly on China, based on the GTAP model. The results indicate that, the majority of countries and regions will benefit from the tariff reduction in terms of GDP, import and export, social welfare and other general indicators once RCEP is built. China will be influ- enced in the direction of trade, composition of trade commodity and trade mode in varying degrees; On the in- dustry perspective, the majority of sectors will be promoted, while sectors such as mining industry, machinery and electronics and transportation and service industry will suffer. From both national and industrial levels, suggestions for policy-makers are put forward based on our research findings.