基于3S技术的图们江流域湿地生态安全评价与预警研究

Study on ecological safety evaluation and warning of wetlands in Tumen River watershed based on 3S technology

图们江是我国重要的国际性河流之一,随着我国经济的迅速崛起,图们江地区进入到多国合作联合开发阶段,该区环境也因此受到了不同程度的干扰和破坏,对该区域进行湿地生态安全评价与预警研究,可为图们江流域生态环境的可持续发展提供依据。以图们江流域湿地生态安全为出发点,基于PSR模型构建了适合该区域生态环境的生态安全评价指标体系,在3S技术支持下,通过解译1976年、1990年、2000年、2010年4个年份的TM/MSS影像,获取了这4个时期的景观格局指标数据,并运用层次分析法确定指标权重;在使用逻辑斯蒂增长曲线模型对各个指标进行单指标评价的基础上,使用综合评价法对各个时期的图们江流域湿地生态安全进行评价,最终得到1976年、1990年生态安全值分别为0.650、0.620,湿地生态系统比较安全,2000年、2010年生态安全值分别为0.536、0.454,湿地生态系统处于预警状态,应及时对该区域湿地生态系统进行保护。基于灰色预测模型构建湿地生态安全预测模型,经检验,模型精度较高,可以进行图们江流域湿地生态安全的预测研究。做出了图们江流域未来40a的湿地生态安全预测,分别为0.3903、0.3345、0.2866、0.2456,湿地生态系统处于中度预警状态,并有向重度预警发展的趋势,生态安全面临的威胁越来越严重,急需对本区域湿地生态系统进行保护与管理。

Wetlands, forests and oceans form the three global ecosystems. Wetlands are the natural integration of aquatic and semi-aquatic creatures in a wet environment.Wetlands are an important natural resource and one of the most important environments for human survival. They not only offer the raw materials for human life and human production but also play an important role in ameliorating weather conditions, flood storage, and the control and reduction of environmental pollution. Wetlands have thus been called the ＂kidney of the earth＂.Global and regional problems such as environmental pollution, soil erosion and so on, have become more and more serious with the rapid development of human society. These problems create a serious threat to society, economic development and perhaps even human survival. People are discovering it is not military or political activity which threatens to restrict economic development, but ecological crises which are creating long term effects. Also, people are gradually realizing that ecological stability is critical to both broad scale ecosystem integrity and guaranteeing sustainable development. It is the region or country other ecological safety of the carrier and the foundation. The development of human society depends on creating sustainable development with a system which secures the survival of ecological systems. Therefore, the study of ecological sustainability has become a field of concern.Tumen river is one of the key international rivers in China. The region has already entered into multinational cooperation in developmental stages with the Chinese economy rising rapidly. The environment has been getting interfered with and destroyed in different degrees. This study can provide a scientific basis for sustainable development of ecological environment of the Tumen river basin. In this study, we used the Tumen river watershed wetland ecological security for the purpose built wetland ecology safety evaluation system based on Pressure-Status-Response （PSR） concept model, and got landscape dates of 1976,1990,2000 and 2010 by using 3S technology. We used experts＇ evaluation index combined with AHP evaluation to give the weight and got the final comprehensive evaluation in the use of the logistical growth curve model for each index based on the assessment of a single index. The study finally got the ecological secure values that were respectively 0.650,0.620 in 1976 and 1990, the ecological system was in a safe state; the ecological secure values were respectively 0.536 and 0.454 in 2000 and 2010, which shows that the ecological system was in a state of early warning. The wetland ecological system should be immediately protected. Based on this, we used the grey prediction model to build a wetland ecological safety prediction model and did accuracy testing for the model. The Simulation error, correlation and the mean square error ratio, and the small error probability were primary concerns but the model accuracy was high enough for the Tumen river wetland ecological safety prediction. Finally this study made a prediction for the Tumen river basin wetland ecological safety for 40 years, the results were respectively 0.3903, 0.3345, 0.2866 and 0.2456. The wetland ecological system was in a moderate warning state and the trend of the situation continued to become more severe. Ecological security threat is very serious and this area needs more protection and management for the wetland ecosystem to survive.