基于IDRISI CA-Markov模型的闵行区土地利用变化及预测

The Study on the land use change and the prediction for its future in Minhang District,Shanghai,using IDRISI CA-Markov model

以上海市拓展区-闵行区作为研究对象，利用2000、2005、2010年Landsat TM遥感数据，计算了闵行区三大功能区2000～2005年、2005～2010年土地利用变化矩阵，分析了闵行区10年来三区土地利用变化幅度、速度和转移方向，采用CA-Markov模型预测闵行区土地利用变化趋势。结果表明：闵行三大功能区土地时空变迁差异性大，实质上都是农地转为非农地的过程，原因为所处的城市化阶段各不同。

Based on the interpretation on the remote sensing data of Landsat TMimages in 2000,2005 and 201 0 of Minhang Dis-trict,Shanghai,the paper set up the land use change matrix of this area during the period from 2000 to 2005 and the period from 2005 to 201 0,and further analyzed the change extent,change speed and change trend in past 1 0 years,using CA-Markov model method.The study results showed that there exist large difference of land use change in temporal and spatial,and that the agricul-tural land had great changed into non-agricultural land.This change had strongly been influenced by the urbanization in this area.