考虑气象因子条件下的电网连锁故障预测

Cascading failures forecasting to power grid in consideration of the weather factor

电网连锁故障已经成为影响电网运行安全的主要因子,气象因子中可能导致元件发生"故障聚集"现象,该现象将明显增加电网发生连锁故障的概率。通过分析气象因子影响下电网连锁故障的产生机理,运用贝叶斯网络模型结合气象因子预测电网的初始故障;建立完整的支路静态能量函数的模型,构建在气象因子影响下映射潮流变化的能量指标和反映电网结构脆弱性的电气介数;考虑电网连锁故障过程中前后故障之间的累积效应,提出反映气象因子影响下电网故障后的状态和结构的综合安全指标并对连锁故障的后续故障进行预测,为甄别复杂天气下电网危险环节提供了重要的依据。对IEEE-57母线系统的实例分析,证明了该方法的合理性、有效性。

Grid cascading failure may result in power system power outages and serious consequences, and bad weather causes element happen ＂fault gathered＂ phenomenon, which will significantly increases the probability of power grid cascading failure. By analyzing the mechanism of power grid cascading failure under inclement weather and using Bayesian network model combined with meteorological factor the paper selects the initial fault of the grid. Then establi- shes a complete model of branch static energy function, constructing the mapping trend change energy index and reflect the power grid structure vulnerability electrical interface number. Considering the cumulative effect between optimal power grid cascading failures process and failure , this paper puts forward a comprehensive margin index which shows the optimal trend reflects the power grid state and structure after failure. And then forecasts the subsequent fault, which provides an important basis to screen the dangerous part of the power grid under complex weather. By analysing a regional power grid examples （ IEEE-57 bus system）, it is proved that the rationality and effectiveness of the pro- posed method.