改进的估计高速公路工作区通行能力的多元回归模型

An Improved Multiple Regression Model For Freeway Work Zone Capacity Estimation

考虑关闭车道数与关闭车道位置的联合作用对高速公路工作区通行能力的影响,使通行能力的估计模型更加准确。首先计算影响因素与通行能力之间的相关关系,得到关闭车道数与关闭车道位置的联合作用对通行能力也有较大的影响。然后用多元回归分析建立工作区通行能力与因素间的函数表达式。最后,利用现场数据将此模型与另外两个模型进行比较。回归结果表明,拟合优度有所提升,残差从之前的2 962.72降低到10.26。

The objective of this article is to consider the combined effects of number of closed lanes （NUMCL）and location of closed lanes （LOCCL）on freeway work zone capacity.Firstly,a corre-lation matrix was calculated.It proves that the combined effects of NUMCL and LOCCL have great influ-ence on capacity.Secondly,a multiple regression analysis was developed for establishing a functional re-lationship between work zone capacity and influencing factors.Finally,the improved model was compared with other existing capacity models using field data.The results indicate that the goodness-of-fit increases and residual error is reduced from 2 962.72 to 10.26.