基于不确定性理论的城市道路交叉口服务水平综合评价

A Synthetic Assessment of Urban Roadway Intersection Based on Uncertain Theory

为有效监测和评估交叉口通行效率,探索和构建了城市道路平面交叉口的综合评估模型。针对道路平面交叉口服务水平综合评价中存在的随机性和模糊性,运用云理论的不确定推理特性和物元理论兼具定性、定量分析的优点,提出了基于正态云物元理论综合评估模型。综合层次分析法和信息熵理论确定了平面交叉口各评价指标的权重系数。最后以采集乌鲁木齐市某交叉口在不同天气下交通运行状况数据为例,对交叉口进行综合评价研究,研究结果与实际吻合较好,表明该评价方法具有较好的科学性和可操作性。

To effectively monitor and assess intersection operation efficiency,synthetic assessment model of urban at-grade intersection is explored and developed.Considering the randomness and fuzzi-ness of influential factors of intersection,combined normal cloud matter-element model based on uncertain reasoning features of cloud theory and quality and quantity advantages of matter-element theory is pro-posed.AHP and information entropy are used to determine the weight coefficients of the evaluation inde-xes.Finally,the observed data according to the different weather traffic operation conditions of Urumqi intersection is adopted to verify the feasibility and utility of the method.The study results show that the e-valuation method is scientific and operational in practical experience.